Effects of exchange rate volatility on Brazilian exports

Authors

  • Osmar José Bertholini Pianca Instituto Federal do Espírito Santo - IFES
  • Carlos Heitor d'Avila Pereira Campani Instituto COPPEAD de Administração - UFRJ
  • Rafael Cardoso Instituto COPPEAD de Administração - UFRJ

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.19094/contextus.v15i2.1023

Keywords:

Exchange rate volatility. Real exchange rates. Nominal exchange rates. Brazilian Exports. Brazil.

Abstract

An economy with high exchange rate volatility brings uncertainties to its international trade flow and, therefore, affects its country’s exports. Such uncertainties justify researches trying to identify the effects of exchange rate volatility on exports. This paper aims to investigate the effects of the US dollar exchange rate volatility on Brazilian exports with a focus on certain relevant sectors of Brazil’s economy. Four different metrics of exchange rate volatility were used as independent variables whereas the exported volumes of some products and sectors were taken as dependent variables. The estimation process was carried out by means of the Generalized Method of Moments because it presents better properties for finite samples and it treats the endogenicity problem. The results show that some products and sectors are indeed affected by volatility of the US dollar exchange rate in a negative way, while other products and sectors seem to have not been affected.

Author Biography

Osmar José Bertholini Pianca, Instituto Federal do Espírito Santo - IFES

Mestre em Administração com linha de pesquisa finanças e avaliação de empresas

References

ALTINTAŞ, H.; CETIN, R.; ÖZ, B. The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Turkish Exports: 1993-2009. South East European Journal of Economics and Business, v. 6, n. 2, p. 71-81, 1 jan. 2011.

ARISTOTELOUS, K. Exchange-rate volatility, exchange-rate regime, and trade volume: Evidence from the UK-US export function (1889-1999). Economics Letters, v. 72, n. 1, p. 87-94, 1 jul. 2001.

ARIZE, A. C.; OSANG, T.; AND SLOTTJE, D. J. Exchange volatility and foreign trade: Evidence from thirteen LDCs. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, v. 18, n. 1, p. 10-17, jan. 2000.

ARIZE, A. C.; OSANG, T.; AND SLOTTJE, D. J. Exchange-rate volatility in Latin America and its impact on foreign trade. International Review of Economics and Finance, v. 17, n. 1, p. 33-44, 1 jan. 2008.

ASTERIOU, D.; MASATCI, K.; PILBEAM, K. Exchange rate volatility and international trade: International evidence from the MINT countries. Economic Modelling, v. 58, p. 133-140, nov. 2016.

BAHMANI-OSKOOEE, M.; HARVEY, H. Exchange rate volatility and its impact on commodity trade flows between singapore and malaysia. Journal Of Economic Development, v. 17, n. 1, p. 17-33, 2017.

BAKHROMOV, N. The Exchange Rate Volatility and the Trade Balance: Case of Uzbekistan. Journal of Applied Economics and Business Research JAEBR, v. 1, n. 3, p. 149-161, 2011.

BAUM, C. F.; CAGLAYAN, M. On the sensitivity of the volume and volatility of bilateral trade flows to exchange rate uncertainty. Journal of International Money and Finance, v. 29, n. 1, p. 79-93, 1 fev. 2010.

BITTENCOURT, G. M.; CAMPOS, A. C. Efeitos da instabilidade da taxa de câmbio no comércio setorial entre Brasil e seus principais parceiros comerciais. Economia Aplicada, v. 18, n. 4, p. 657-678, dez. 2014.

BUENO, R. DE L. DA S. Econometria de Séries Temporais. 2. ed. 2008.

BYRNE, J. P.; DARBY, J.; MACDONALD, R. US trade and exchange rate volatility: A real sectoral bilateral analysis. Journal of Macroeconomics, v. 30, n. 1, p. 238-259, 1 mar. 2008.

CAGLAYAN, M.; DI, J. Does Real Exchange Rate Volatility Affect Sectoral Trade Flows? Southern Economic Journal, v. 77, p. 313-335, October 2010.

CHOWDHURY, A. Does Exchange Rate Variability Depress Trade Flows? Evidence From Error Correction Models. Review of Economics and Statistics, v. 75, n. 4, p. 700-706, 1993.

DE BIASI DA SILVA, C.; VAZ, M.; BITTENCOURT, L. O comércio intra-industrial do Mercosul e a volatilidade da taxa de câmbio. In: XX ENCONTRO DE ECONOMIA DA REGIÃO SUL, 2017, Porto Alegre. Disponível em: <https://www.anpec.org.br/sul/2017/submissao/files_I/i5-1f402e0fd994cb90ed8c44f97775f534.pdf>. Acesso em: 3 nov. 2017.

EKANAYAKE, E. M.; THAVER, R. L.; PLANTE, D. The Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on South Africa’s Trade with the European Union. The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, v. 6 (3), p. 13-26, 2012.

FOUNTAS, S.; BREDIN, D. Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: The Case of Ireland. Department of Economics, National University of Ireland, Galway, v. 16, p. 301-304, May 1997.

GUJARATI, D. N.; PORTER, D. C. Econometria básica. 5. ed. Porto Alegre: AMGH, 2011.

HSU, K. C.; CHIANG, H. C. The threshold effects of exchange rate volatility on exports: Evidence from US bilateral exports. Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, v. 20, n. 1, p. 113-128, fev. 2011.

HULL, J. Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives. 9. ed. Pearson Education, 2015.

LI, H.; MA, H.; XU, Y. How do exchange rate movements affect Chinese exports? – A firm-level investigation. Journal of International Economics, v. 97, n. 1, p. 148-161, 1 set. 2015.

OZTURK, I.; KALYONCU, H. Exchange rate volatility and trade: An empirical investigation from cross-country comparison. African Development Review, v. 21, n. 3, p. 499-513, 1 dez. 2009.

SERENIS, D.; TSOUNIS, N. Exchange Rate Volatility and Aggregate Exports: Evidence from Two Small Countries. ISRN Economics, v. 2014, p. 1-10, 20 jan. 2014.

SILVA, F. A.; FREITAS, C. O. DE; MATTOS, L. B. DE. Volatilidade da taxa de câmbio e seus efeitos sobre o fluxo de comércio dos países da América do Sul. Revista de Economia Contemporânea, v. 20, n. 2, p. 229-249, 2016.

TAKAENDESA, P. ; TSHEOLE, T. ; AZIAKPONO, M. Real exchange rate volatility and its effect on trade flows: new evidence from South Africa. Studies in Economics and Econometrics, v. 30, n. 3, p. 79-97, 1 nov. 2006.

TELES, V. K. Choques cambiais, política monetária e equilíbrio externo da economia brasileira em um ambiente de hysteresis. Economia Aplicada, v. 9, n. 55, p. 415-426, set. 2005.

VERGIL, H. Exchange Rate Volatility in Turkey and Its Effect on Trade Flows. Journal of Economic and Social Research, v. 4, n. 1, p. 83-99, 2002.

VITA, G. DE; ABBOTT, A. Real Exchange Rate Volatility and US Exports: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach. Economic Issues Journal Articles, v. 9, n. 1, p. 69-78, 2004.

WANG, K.-L.; BARRETT, B. Estimating the Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Export Volumes. Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, v. 32, n. 2, p. 225-255, 2007.

WESSEH, P. K.; NIU, L. The impact of exchange rate volatility on trade flows: New evidence from South Africa. International Review of Business Research Papers, v. 8, n. 1, p. 140-165, 2012.

ZHANG, S.; BUONGIORNO, J. Effects of exchange rate volatility on export volume and prices of forest products. Canadian Journal of Forest Research, v. 40, n. 11, p. 2069-2081, nov. 2010.

Published

2017-11-14

How to Cite

Pianca, O. J. B., Campani, C. H. d’Avila P., & Cardoso, R. (2017). Effects of exchange rate volatility on Brazilian exports. Contextus - Contemporary Journal of Economics and Management, 15(2), 188–210. https://doi.org/10.19094/contextus.v15i2.1023

Issue

Section

Articles